Elon Musk, the visionary entrepreneur behind Tesla, X, and SpaceX, anticipates that artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities will surpass human intelligence by the end of 2025, provided that the supply of electricity and hardware can meet the demands of this advancing technology.
During an interview with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Musk expressed his belief that AI will outstrip individual human intelligence by the end of 2025 and is likely to surpass the collective intelligence of all humans within the next five years.
Musk’s prediction marks a more ambitious timeline than previously forecasted. Last year, he projected the achievement of “full” artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2029. While some of Musk’s past predictions, such as the widespread adoption of self-driving Teslas and the landing of rockets on Mars, have yet to materialize, recent AI breakthroughs, including advancements in video generation and chatbot capabilities, have accelerated the pace of AI development beyond expectations.
However, the progress in AI development has been hindered by supply chain constraints, particularly in microchip production, notably those manufactured by Nvidia, which are crucial for training and operating AI models. Musk noted that while these constraints are gradually easing, new challenges are emerging, including constraints on data center equipment and electricity supply.
Musk’s renewed enthusiasm for AI development contrasts with his previous calls for caution. Last year, he advocated for a pause in advanced AI development due to the perceived risks posed to society and humanity. However, Musk disclosed that his own AI startup, xAI, is actively developing advanced AI models, with plans to release a second version of its Grok model, anticipated to surpass the capabilities of OpenAI‘s GPT-4.
Over the past year, Musk has redirected more resources towards xAI and is reportedly seeking significant investment to compete with OpenAI. His involvement in AI development has been marked by controversies, including his departure from OpenAI in 2018 over disagreements with the company’s leadership. Musk subsequently filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, alleging breach of contract, a claim strongly denied by OpenAI.
As Musk continues to push the boundaries of AI development, his predictions underscore the transformative potential of this technology and the challenges it poses to society.