The recent decline in personal computer (PC) sales is expected to come to an end in the coming year, with analysts forecasting a resurgence driven by consumer interest in newer PCs and a growing demand for devices equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) features.
According to a report by analysts Ben Caddy and Kieren Jessop on December 20, Canalys anticipates an 8% growth in the PC market in 2024. The analysts highlight that customers are looking to refresh their PCs from the pandemic era, and the emergence of new AI-capable devices is poised to further boost the market.
One key factor contributing to the optimistic outlook is Microsoft’s decision to end support for its Windows 10 operating system on October 14, 2025. Canalys notes that this move could drive sales of newer PCs, as it may prevent hundreds of millions of devices from receiving extended support.
IDC, a market intelligence firm, supports this view, stating that the aging installed base of commercial PCs, surpassing the four-year mark by 2024, is likely to necessitate a refresh. This coincides with the demand to migrate towards Windows 11. IDC expects the PC market to grow by 3.4% in 2024 compared to 2023.
Despite a 7.2% drop in global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2023, as reported by IDC data, the market is poised for a turnaround. The decline in shipments was attributed to macroeconomic challenges, weak retail and commercial demand, and a shift in IT budgets away from device purchases.
Canalys predicts that the rise of generative artificial intelligence will contribute to the revival of PC sales. Consumers are actively seeking devices with AI features to enhance productivity and leisure experiences. The firm envisions that by 2027, 60% of PCs shipped will be AI-capable.
HP CEO Enrique Lores supports this trend, stating that the incorporation of AI capabilities into the company’s new computers is expected to double the growth of the PC category, starting next year. While initially targeted at specific segments of the enterprise market, AI-integrated PCs could eventually find a broader market as costs decrease and more use cases emerge, according to IDC analysts. The integration of AI features is anticipated to act as a catalyst for PC upgrades, with products hitting the shelves in 2024.
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